On August 1, 2026, the US stock market kicked off the first trading day of August with strong performance across all three major indices, setting a positive tone for the second half of the year. At today's close, the S&P 500 rose 0.65% to 5,985.42, once again approaching its all-time high; the Nasdaq Composite surged 1.12% to 18,420.75, boosted by a tech rebound; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.35% to 40,150.88. On the eve of the highly anticipated US nonfarm payrolls report tonight, the market showed rare optimism and resilience, with AI hardware and traditional cyclical stocks forming a rare resonance pattern.
Market Snapshot: Tech and Cyclicals Converge
Based on last night's US stocks live data, market style subtly shifted from late July. Tech giants that had been consolidating at high levels regained favor. In particular, the semiconductor sector centered on AI computing power led the market higher after a period of valuation digestion. NVIDIA shares climbed over 3%, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 1.8%. This shows that despite previous doubts about the sustainability of AI infrastructure investment, funds are still choosing certainty in the face of solid earnings season results.
Echoing the tech recovery, traditional cyclical stocks stabilized. Yesterday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for July remained below the expansion threshold, but the new orders sub-index rebounded more than expected. This improvement in macro data directly boosted industrial, materials, and energy sectors. The S&P 500 Energy and Industrial sectors rose 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively. This dual-engine drive of "tech + cyclicals" became the core force pushing the S&P 500 higher.
Focus on Nonfarm Night: A Litmus Test for Rate-Cut Expectations
Tonight, the US Labor Department will release the July nonfarm payrolls report, undoubtedly the most closely watched event for global capital markets this week. For traders accustomed to monitoring US stocks live data, this report will directly determine the short-term direction of US equities.
Currently, the market broadly expects July nonfarm payrolls to add around 175,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%. After the Fed kept rates unchanged at its July meeting but signaled that inflation is moving toward its target, this report serves as a crucial litmus test for the Fed's assessment.
- If nonfarm payrolls are strong (over 200k): This would indicate a still-resilient labor market, potentially sparking concerns about delayed rate cuts. Treasury yields could spike, and tech stocks may face short-term valuation pressure.
- If nonfarm payrolls are weak (below 150k): This would reinforce expectations of a cooling economy and strengthen the case for a September rate cut. In this scenario, the broader market might initially dip on recession fears but would likely be supported by rate-cut expectations, with growth and small-cap stocks poised for a rebound.
Sector Analysis: AI Hardware Enters the "Earnings Realization Phase"
Recent volatility in US tech stocks essentially reflects the market seeking a balance between AI capital expenditure (Capex) and actual return on investment (ROI). From several tech giants that have already reported earnings, cloud service revenue growth has clearly accelerated, proving that AI infrastructure investment is translating into tangible revenue.
For investors focused on cross-border allocation, this means the investment logic for the AI industry chain has shifted from early-stage "concept hype" to the "earnings realization phase." Against this backdrop, AI hardware companies with core technological barriers and central positions in the data center upgrade cycle remain the ballast for US stock allocation in the second half of the year.
Cross-Border Implications: Strategic Insights for Hong Kong and Taiwan Markets
As a column focused on TWSE/HKEX capital strategies, we cannot view US stock fluctuations in isolation. The strong performance and improving risk appetite in US markets have direct implications for Hong Kong and Taiwan equities.
First, the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) has an extremely high correlation with US semiconductor stocks. Last night's surge in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is expected to directly boost heavyweight stocks like TSMC and MediaTek when the Taiwan market opens today. The Taiwan Weighted Index is likely to remain strong, driven by the AI supply chain. Investors can closely monitor the premium rate of TSMC ADR after US market close as a reference for short-term trading in Taiwan stocks.
Second, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) urgently needs catalysts. While a stronger US market can improve global investor risk appetite to some extent, Hong Kong's pricing power is more influenced by southbound funds and mainland China's macroeconomy. However, if tonight's nonfarm payrolls significantly miss expectations, causing the US dollar index to weaken, the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate will be supported, and Hong Kong's liquidity environment will see marginal improvement. At that time, Hong Kong-listed tech leaders sensitive to overseas liquidity (such as Hang Seng Tech Index constituents) may see a phased recovery.
US Stocks Live: Trading Strategy and Risk Reminder
Looking ahead, after the strong start to August, the US stock market will enter a period of intensive data releases in the short term. Besides nonfarm payrolls, next week's CPI data is equally important. For today's pre-market trading, investors should focus on two key points:
- Index Futures Movement: Tonight's pre-market movements in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures will directly reflect market expectations for the nonfarm data. If pre-market futures show significant gaps, be prepared for sharp volatility after the open.
- Defensive Sector Allocation: During the uncertain period before the nonfarm data release, consider moderately increasing positions in defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities to hedge against potential downside risks.
Overall, US stock fundamentals remain solid, and corporate earnings expectations have not materially deteriorated. While using US stocks live tools to capture short-term opportunities, investors should maintain reasonable position sizes and avoid heavy bets before key data releases. With expectations of a global rate-cutting cycle about to begin, quality equity assets still hold long-term allocation value. Patiently waiting for the data to land may be the best investment strategy right now.
